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Foreclosures and Bankruptcies Won’t Crash the Housing Market in Prescott Valley

Foreclosures and Bankruptcies Won’t Crash the Housing Market

If you’ve been following the news recently, you might have seen articles about an increase in foreclosures and bankruptcies. That could be making you feel uneasy, especially if you’re thinking about buying or selling a house.

But the truth is, even though the numbers are going up, the data shows the housing market isn’t headed for a crisis.

Foreclosure Activity Rising, but Less Than Headlines Suggest

In recent years, the number of foreclosures has been very low. That’s because, in 2020 and 2021, the forbearance program and other relief options were put in place to help many homeowners stay in their homes during that tough time.

When the moratorium ended, there was an expected rise in foreclosures. But just because they’re up, that doesn’t mean the housing market is in trouble.

To help you see how much things have changed since the housing crash in 2008, check out the graph below using research from ATTOM, a property data provider. It looks at properties with a foreclosure filing going all the way back to 2005 to show that there have been fewer foreclosures since the crash.

As you can see, foreclosure filings are inching back up to pre-pandemic numbers, but they’re still way lower than when the housing market crashed in 2008. And today, the tremendous amount of equity American homeowners have in their homes can help people sell and avoid foreclosure.

The Increase in Bankruptcies Isn’t Dramatic Either

As you can see below, the financial trouble many industries and small businesses felt during the pandemic didn’t cause a dramatic increase in bankruptcies. Still, the number of bankruptcies has gone up slightly since last year, nearly returning to 2021 levels. But that isn’t cause for alarm.

The numbers for 2021 and 2022 were lower than more typical years. That’s in part because the government provided trillions of dollars in aid to individuals and businesses during the pandemic. So, let’s instead focus on the bar for this year and compare it to the bar on the far left (2019). It shows the number of bankruptcies today is still nowhere near where it was before the pandemic. Both of these two factors are reasons why the housing market isn’t in danger of crashing.

Bottom Line

Right now, it’s crucial to understand the data. Foreclosures and bankruptcies are rising, but these leading indicators aren’t signaling trouble that would cause another crash.

Posted in: Market Update Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Arizona, Build Equity, Foreclosures, Good Time to Sell, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home prices, housing market, Housing Market Update, Housing Market Updates, Inflation, Low Inventory, market trends, Price Appreciation, Real Estate Expert, Sell Your House, Selling Potential, Selling Your House

The Rise in Foreclosures and Bankruptcies Isn’t a Cause for Concern in Oxnard

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The rise in foreclosures and bankruptcies isn’t cause for concern. They’re just approaching more normal levels. Have questions about what’s happening in the market? Let’s connect.

Posted in: Buyer Tips, Market Update, Seller Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, buying myths, California, Downsizing, Foreclosures, Good Time to Sell, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home prices, Homebuyer, Homebuying, Homeownership, housing market, market trends, Oxnard, Real Estate Expert, Sell Your House, Selling Myths, Selling Your House

Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices in Prescott

Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices

According to the latest data from Fannie Mae, 23% of Americans still think home prices will go down over the next twelve months. But why do roughly 1 in 4 people feel that way?

It has a lot to do with all the negative talk about home prices over the past year. Since late 2022, the media has created a lot of fear about a price crash and those concerns are still lingering. You may be hearing people in your own life saying they’re worried about home prices or see on social media that some influencers are saying prices are going to come tumbling down.

If you’re someone who still thinks prices are going to fall, ask yourself this: Which is a more reliable place to get your information – clickbait headlines and social media or a trusted expert on the housing market?

The answer is simple. Listen to the professionals who specialize in residential real estate.

Here’s the latest data you can actually trust. Housing market experts acknowledge that nationally, prices did dip down slightly late last year, but that was short-lived. Data shows prices have already rebounded this year after that slight decline in 2022 (see graph below):

But it’s not just Fannie Mae that’s reporting this bounce back. Experts from across the industry are showing it in their data too. And that’s why so many forecasts now project home prices will net positive this year – not negative. The graph below helps prove this point with the latest forecasts from each organization:

What’s worth noting is that, just a few short weeks ago, the Fannie Mae forecast was for 3.9% appreciation in 2023. In the forecast that just came out, that projection was updated from 3.9% to 6.7% for the year. This increase goes to show just how confident experts are that home prices will net positive this year.

So, if you believe home prices are falling, it may be time to get your insights from the experts instead – and they’re saying prices aren’t falling, they’re climbing.

Bottom Line

There’s been a lot of misleading information about home prices over the past year. And that’s still having an impact on how people are feeling about the housing market today. But it’s best not to believe everything you hear or read.

 

If you want information you can trust, turn to the real estate experts. Their data shows home prices are on the way back up and will net positive for the year. If you have questions about what’s happening in our local area, let’s connect.

Posted in: Buyer Tips, Home Tips, Market Update, Seller Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Arizona, Build Equity, Downsizing, Good Time to Sell, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home prices, Homebuyer, Homebuying, Homeownership, housing market, Housing Market Update, Housing Market Updates, Inflation, market trends, Move-Up Home Buyers, Prescott, Price Appreciation, Pricing, Selling Your House, Wealth Building

What Are Accessory Dwelling Units and How Can They Benefit You in Simi Valley?

What Are Accessory Dwelling Units and How Can They Benefit You?

Maybe you’re in the market for a home and are having a hard time finding the right one that fits your budget. Or perhaps you’re already a homeowner in need of extra income or a place for loved ones. Whether as a potential homebuyer or a homeowner with changing needs, accessory dwelling units, or ADUs for short, may be able to help you reach your goals.

What Is an ADU?

As AARP says:

“An ADU is a small residence that shares a single-family lot with a larger, primary dwelling.”

“An ADU is an independent, self-contained living space with a kitchen or kitchenette, bathroom and sleeping area.”

“An ADU can be located within, attached to, or detached from the main residence. It can be created out of an existing structure (such as a garage) or built anew.”

If you’re thinking about whether an ADU makes sense for you as a buyer or a homeowner, here’s some useful information and benefits that ADUs can provide. Keep in mind, that regulations for ADUs vary based on where you live, so lean on a local real estate professional for more information.

The Benefits of ADUs

Freddie Mac and the AARP identify some of the best features of ADUs for both buyers and homeowners:

  • Living Close by, But Still Separate: ADUs allow loved ones to live together while having separate spaces. That means you can enjoy each other’s company and help each other out with things like childcare, but also have privacy when needed. If this appeals to you, you may want to consider buying a home with an ADU or adding an ADU onto your house. According to Freddie Mac:

“Having an accessory dwelling unit on an existing property has become a popular way for homeowners to offer independent living space to family members.”

  • Aging in Place: Similarly, ADUs allow older people to be close to loved ones who can help them if they need it as they age. It gives them the best of both worlds – independence and support from loved ones. For example, if your parents are getting older and you want them nearby, you may want to buy a home with an ADU or build one onto your existing house.
  • Affordable To Build: Since ADUs are often on the smaller side, they’re typically less expensive to build than larger, standalone homes. Building one can also increase your property’s value.
  • Generating Additional Income: If you own a home with an ADU or if you build an ADU on your land, it can help generate rental income you could use toward your own mortgage payments. It’s worth noting that because an ADU exists on a single-family lot as a secondary dwelling, it typically cannot be sold separately from the primary residence. But that’s changing in some states. Work with a professional to understand your options.

These are a few of the reasons why many people who benefit from ADUs think they’re a good idea. As Scott Wild, SVP of Consulting at John Burns Research, says:

“It’s gone from a small niche in the market to really a much more impactful part of new housing.”

Bottom Line

ADUs have some great advantages for buyers and homeowners alike. If you’re interested, reach out to a real estate professional who can help you understand local codes and regulations for this type of housing and what’s available in your market.

Posted in: Home Tips, Realtor Daily, Seller Tips Tagged: Accessory Dwelling Unit, Addington Realty Group, ADU, Build Equity, California, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home prices, Homeownership, Inflation, market trends, Price Appreciation, Real Estate, Real Estate Expert, Selling Potential, Simi Valley

The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023 in Simi Valley

The Latest Expert Forecasts for Home Prices in 2023

Are you thinking about making a move? If so, all the speculation that home prices would crash this year may have you feeling a bit on edge about your decision. Let the data and the experts reassure you. Prices aren’t in a downward spiral and will actually finish the year strong.

Even though you may have heard talk that prices would drop 5, 10, or even 20% this year, that hasn’t happened. The big reason why is the supply of homes for sale is too low. There are just more buyers looking to buy than homes available, and that’s kept prices from falling.

To prove this year wasn’t a bust for home prices, let’s look at the latest 2023 forecast from a number of experts.

Most Experts Project Home Prices Will Net Positive this Year

The general consensus from industry experts is that home price appreciation will actually be positive for 2023. The graph below shows the latest 2023 year-end forecasts from six different organizations:

As you can see, all but one project nationally prices will net positive this year. That’s significant because it shows the majority are optimistic about home price growth.

If you’re still worried about the one red bar that shows an overall price drop for the year, think about this. The projection from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is for only a slight decline. It’s not the big crash all the headlines called for. Plus, if you average all six forecasts together, the expectation is that prices will net somewhere around 3.3% positive growth for the year.

If these 6 organizations aren’t enough to convince you that prices won’t come tumbling down, here’s something else to consider. One of the six forecasts represented in the graph is the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics. It combines survey results from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. The HPES found that the average from all 100 of those experts is 3.3% price growth for the year.

If you look back at the graph above, you’ll notice the blue average for the forecasts in this graph is also 3.3%. While individual forecasts may vary, both the HPES survey and the average of these forecasts provide the same projection. And 3.3% appreciation is a completely different story than prices falling.

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about home prices falling this year, let the experts reassure you. Based on the average of the latest forecasts, home prices will actually show positive growth this year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local area, let’s connect.

Posted in: Buyer Tips, Market Update Tagged: Addington Realty Group, California, Hedge Against Inflation, home prices, homes for sale, housing market, Housing Market Update, Low Inventory, Making A Move, market trends, More Space, mortgage rates, Price Appreciation, Pricing, Real Estate Expert, Supply of Homes

What Are the Real Reasons You Want To Move Right Now in Prescott Valley?

What Are the Real Reasons You Want To Move Right Now?

If you’re considering selling your house right now, it’s likely because something in your life has changed. And while things like mortgage rates play a big role in your decision, you don’t want that to overshadow why you thought about making a move in the first place.

It’s true mortgage rates are higher right now, and that has an impact on affordability. As a result, some homeowners are deciding they’ll wait to sell because they don’t want to move and have a higher mortgage rate on their next home.

But your lifestyle and your changing needs matter, too. As a recent article from Realtor.com says:

“No matter what interest rates and home prices do next, sometimes homeowners just have to move—due to a new job, new baby, divorce, death, or some other major life change.”

Here are a few of the most common reasons people choose to sell today. You may find any one of these resonates with you and may be reason enough to move, even today.

Relocation

Some of the things that can motivate a move to a new area include changing jobs, a desire to be closer to friends and loved ones, wanting to live in your ideal location, or just looking for a change in scenery.

For example, if you just landed your dream job in another state, you may be thinking about selling your current home and moving for work.

Upgrading

Many homeowners decide to sell to move into a larger home. This is especially common when there’s a need for more room to entertain, a home office or gym, or additional bedrooms to accommodate a growing number of loved ones.

For example, if you’re living in a condo and your household is growing, it may be time to find a home that better fits those needs.

Downsizing

Homeowners may also decide to sell because someone’s moved out of the home recently and there’s now more space than needed. It could also be that they’ve recently retired or are ready for a change.

For example, you’ve just kicked off your retirement and you want to move somewhere warmer with less house to maintain. A different home may be better suited for your new lifestyle.

Change in Relationship Status

Divorce, separation, or marriage are other common reasons individuals sell.

For example, if you’ve recently separated, it may be difficult to still live under one roof. Selling and getting a place of your own may be a better option.

Health Concerns

If a homeowner faces mobility challenges or health issues that require specific living arrangements or modifications, they might sell their house to find one that works better for them.

For example, you may be looking to sell your house and use the proceeds to help pay for a unit in an assisted-living facility.

With higher mortgage rates and rising prices, there are some affordability challenges right now – but your needs and your lifestyle matter too. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market. . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation . . .”

Bottom Line

If you want to sell your house and find a new one that better fits your needs, let’s connect. That way, you’ll have someone to guide you through the process and help you find a home that works for you.

Posted in: Buyer Tips, Seller Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Arizona, Downsizing, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home prices, Homebuyer, housing market, Job Relocation, mortgage rates, Move-Up Home Buyers, Putting Down Roots, Real Estate Expert, Relocation, Selling Your House, Upgrade Your Home

Invest in Yourself by Owning a Home in Oxnard

Are you wondering if it makes sense to buy a home right now? While today’s mortgage rates might seem a bit intimidating, here are two compelling reasons why it still may be a good time to become a homeowner.

Home Values Appreciate over Time

There’s been a lot of confusion around what’s happened with home prices over the past two years. While they did dip ever so slightly in late 2022, this year they’ve been appreciating at a more normal pace, which is good news for the housing market. And while looking at price movement over just a year or two can make you worry prices are usually this unpredictable, history shows in the long run, home values rise (see graph below):

Using data from the Federal Reserve for the past 60 years, you can see the overall trend is home prices have climbed quite steadily. Sure, there was an exception around the housing crash of 2008 that caused prices to break the usual trend for a time, but overall, home values have been consistently on the rise.

Increasing home values is one great reason why buying may make more sense than renting. As prices rise, and as you pay down your mortgage, you build equity. Over time, that growing equity gives your net worth a boost.

Rent Keeps Going Up Through the Years

Another reason you may want to consider buying a home instead of renting is the never-ending rent hike. If you’ve ever felt the pinch of rent increasing year after year, you’re not alone. That’s because, rents have climbed steadily over the past six decades (see graph below):

By buying a home, you can lock in your monthly housing costs and bid farewell to those pesky rent hikes. That stability is a game-changer.

In the end, it all boils down to this: your housing payments are an investment, and you’ve got a choice to make. Do you want to invest in yourself or your landlord?

By becoming a homeowner, you’re investing in your own future. When you rent, that’s money you never get back.

When you factor in home values consistently rising, plus the opportunity to get relief from never-ending rent hikes, homeownership can be a path to financial security. As Dr. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), states:

“If a homebuyer is financially stable, able to manage monthly mortgage costs and can handle the associated household maintenance expenses, then it makes sense to purchase a home.”

Bottom Line

When it comes down to it, buying a home offers more benefits than renting, even when mortgage rates are high. If you want to avoid increasing rents and take advantage of long-term home price appreciation, let’s connect to go over your options.

Posted in: Buyer Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Best Investment, California, First Time Home Buyers, Hedge Against Inflation, Home Affordability, home investing, home prices, Homebuying, Oxnard, Price Appreciation, Real Estate Expert, Rent vs Buy, Wealth Building

The Risks of Selling Your House on Your Own in Simi Valley

Are you thinking about selling your house as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO)? If so, know there’s a whole lot more time and expertise needed in that process than you might think. While the idea of doing it all by yourself might seem tempting, it’s important to recognize the challenges you may face if you take it on all by yourself. As a recent article from Bankrate explains:

“Choosing the right price, crafting a compelling listing, marketing to potential buyers, coordinating showings, preparing paperwork: All of these are tasks that, in the absence of a real estate agent, you will have to do yourself.”

Here’s a bit more information on just a few of those things and how you may miss out if you don’t use an agent.

You May Not Price it Right

Pricing your house right is key to a successful sale. Real estate agents have experience navigating this housing market and understand the art of pricing a home to sell today. Unfortunately, homeowners who sell on their own often lack this all-important experience. That can lead to two common consequences: overpricing or underpricing the house.

An article from Nerd Wallet offers this advice:

“If your home is overpriced, you run the risk of buyers not seeing the listing. . . . But price your house too low and you could end up leaving some serious money on the table. A bargain-basement price could also turn some buyers away, as they may wonder if there are any underlying problems with the house.”

Don’t run this risk. Instead, partner with an agent to make sure your house is priced at current market value, so it catches the eyes of eager buyers. This will put your house in a position to make the best first impression possible.

You Don’t Have as Much Experience in Marketing a House

In this digital age, online marketing has become a real game-changer, especially when it comes to selling your house. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Among all generations of home buyers, the first step taken in the home search process was to look online for properties.”

When you partner with a real estate agent who knows how to take advantage of online marketing tools and resources, you’ll be able to get in front of these tech-savvy house hunters, boosting your chances of a successful sale. But, if you’re attempting to sell your house on your own, you might find yourself missing out on the full power of online and social media strategies.

You May Not Be Comfortable Handling All the Back-and-Forth

When you decide to sell your house, you’re not just on a quest to find a buyer; you’re also stepping into a world of negotiations. You’ll have to coordinate with a bunch of people, including the buyer, the buyer’s agent, the inspection company, the appraiser, and more. It’s a dance where every move counts, and the expertise of a real estate agent can make a world of difference in keeping these negotiations on track and sealing the deal.

As NerdWallet says:

“Your listing agent will also, of course, be on your side throughout negotiations. They’ll double-check paperwork that comes through, communicate with the buyer’s agent and other parties to the sale, and generally stay on top of things through to closing day.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house and the idea of going it alone has crossed your mind, be sure to think through that decision carefully. Let’s connect to discuss how a real estate agent has the experience needed to take all that stress off your plate.

 

Posted in: Seller Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Good Time to Sell, Hedge Against Inflation, home prices, housing market, Pricing, Real Estate Expert, Selling Your House, Simi Valley

Explaining Today’s California Mortgage Rates

Explaining Today’s California Mortgage Rates

If you’re following mortgage rates because you know they impact your borrowing costs, you may be wondering what the future holds for them. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to answer that question because mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast.

But, there’s one thing that’s historically a good indicator of what’ll happen with rates, and that’s the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Here’s a graph showing those two metrics since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:

As the graph shows, historically, the average spread between the two over the last 50 years was 1.72 percentage points (also commonly referred to as 172 basis points). If you look at the trend line you can see when the Treasury Yield trends up, mortgage rates will usually respond. And, when the Yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. While they typically move in sync like this, the gap between the two has remained about 1.72 percentage points for quite some time. But, what’s crucial to notice is that spread is widening far beyond the norm lately (see graph below):

If you’re asking yourself: what’s pushing the spread beyond its typical average? It’s primarily because of uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, other economic drivers, and the policy and decisions from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are all influencing mortgage rates and a widening spread.

Why Does This Matter for You?

This may feel overly technical and granular, but here’s why homebuyers like you should understand the spread. It means, based on the normal historical gap between the two, there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

And, experts think that’s what lies ahead as long as inflation continues to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal . . . However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Similarly, an article from Forbes says:

“Though housing market watchers expect mortgage rates to remain elevated amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking war on inflation, they believe rates peaked last fall and will decline—to some degree—later this year, barring any unforeseen surprises.”

Bottom Line

If you’re either a first-time home buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep on top of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts think will happen in the coming months.

Posted in: Buyer Tips, Market Update Tagged: Addington Realty Group, borrowing costs, California, Hedge Against Inflation, Homebuyers, Inflation, Mortgage Loans, mortgage rates, Mortgage Trends

Two Questions To Ask Yourself If You’re Considering Buying a Home In Phoenix, AZ

Two Questions To Ask Yourself if You’re Considering Buying a Home In Phoenix, AZ

 

If you’re thinking of buying a home, chances are you’re paying attention to just about everything you hear about the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media, your real estate agent, conversations with friends and loved ones, overhearing someone chatting at the local supermarket, the list goes on and on. Most likely, home prices and mortgage rates are coming up a lot.

To help cut through the noise and give you the information you need most, take a look at what the data says. Here are the top two questions you need to ask yourself about home prices and mortgage rates as you make your decision:

1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?

One reliable place you can turn to for that information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.

According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are projecting slight depreciation this year (see the red in the graph below). But here’s the context you need most. The worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are actually appreciating again in many markets. Not to mention, the small 0.37% depreciation HPES is showing for 2023 is far from the crash some people originally said would happen.

Now, let’s look to the future. The green in the graph below shows prices have turned a corner and are expected to appreciate in 2024 and beyond. After this year, the HPES is forecasting home price appreciation returning to more normal levels for the next several years.

So, why does this matter to you? It means your home will likely grow in value and you should gain home equity in the years ahead, but only if you buy now. If you wait, based on these forecasts, the home will only cost you more later on.

2. Where Do I Think Mortgage Rates Are Heading?

Over the past year, mortgage rates have risen in response to economic uncertainty, inflation, and more. We know based on the latest reports that inflation, while still high, has moderated from its peak. This is an encouraging sign for the market and for mortgage rates. Here’s why.

When inflation cools, mortgage rates generally fall in response. This may be why some experts are saying mortgage rates will pull back slightly over the next few quarters and settle somewhere around roughly 5.5 and 6% on average.

But, not even the experts can say with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will be next year, or even next month. That’s because there are so many factors that can impact what happens. So, to give you a lens into the various possible outcomes, here’s what you should consider:

  • If you buy now and mortgage rates don’t change: You made a good move since home prices are projected to grow with time, so at least you beat rising prices.
  • If you buy now and mortgage rates fall (as projected): You probably still made a good decision because you got the house before home prices appreciated more. And, you can always refinance your home later on if rates are lower.
  • If you buy now and mortgage rates rise: If this happens, you made a great decision because you bought before both the price of the home and the mortgage rate went up.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you need to know the facts on what’s happening with home prices and mortgage rates. While no one can say for certain where they’ll go, expert projections can give you powerful information to keep you informed. Let’s connect so you have a professional to add in an expert opinion on our local market.

Posted in: Buyer Tips Tagged: Addington Realty Group, Arizona, First Time Home Buyers, Hedge Against Inflation, home prices, Homebuying, mortgage rates, Move-Up Buyers, Phoenix, Price Appreciation

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