2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect in Prescott, Arizona

2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.

Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.

Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly

Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedMortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:

“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”

Expect More Homes To Sell

The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.

According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedThat would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.

While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.

Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately

More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedOn average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.

Bottom Line

Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.

What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market in Prescott Valley, Arizona?

What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedThe one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For in Oxnard, California?

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.

What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.

And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.

Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?

Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.

Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.

Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.

Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths in Camarillo, California

Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths

Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important.

If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove.

1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash

If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedSo, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped.

2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy

If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedSo, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore.

3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment

Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says:

“Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.”

And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below):

First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move.

This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think.

An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions

If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.

Top 5 Reasons To Hire An Agent When Buying A Home In Prescott, Arizona. [INFOGRAPHIC]

Top 5 Reasons To Hire an Agent When Buying a Home [INFOGRAPHIC]

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Some Highlights

  • Hiring an agent when buying a home helps you understand the buying process and the local market.
  • They’ll also go over contracts and fine print with you, so you understand what you’re agreeing to. Plus, they’re good at negotiating, making sure you get the best deal.
  • Expert advice from a trusted real estate professional is priceless. Let’s connect today.

Builders Are Building Smaller Homes in Oxnard, California.

Worried About Home Maintenance Costs in Prescott, Arizona? Consider This.

Worried About Home Maintenance Costs? Consider This

If one of the main reasons you’re hesitant to buy a home is because you’re worried about the upkeep, here’s some information you may find interesting on both new home construction and existing homes (a home that’s been lived in by a previous owner).

Newly Built Homes Need Less Upfront Maintenance

If you can afford it, you may find a newly built home could help ease your worries about maintenance costs. Think about it, if everything in the house is brand new, it won’t have the wear and tear you may see in an existing home – and that means it’s less likely to need repairs. As LendingTree says:

“Since the systems, appliances, roof and foundation are new, you’re less likely to pay for major or minor repairs within the first few years of homeownership. That can make a big difference for first-time homebuyers who are adjusting to owning rather than renting.”

Plus, many builders also have warranties on their homes that would cover some of the more major expenses that could pop up. As First American explains:

“The new systems in your home, like plumbing, electrical, and HVAC, are typically covered for one to two years by your builder’s warranty. When something happens to these systems, you contact the builder or their warranty company.”

Existing Homes Can Still Have Great Perks

But it’s worth mentioning, that it’s not just newly built homes that can have warranties. It’s an option for existing homes too.

Your agent may be able to help you negotiate with the seller to add one as a concession on your contract. But you should know that not all sellers will be willing to do that. If they won’t, you could purchase one yourself, if you’d like to. An article from Forbes explains:

“During a real estate transaction, a home warranty policy can be purchased by the buyer or the seller.”

And there are benefits for both parties when it comes to a home warranty. According to MarketWatch:

“A buyer’s home warranty benefits both buyers and sellers, as it helps the seller close the deal while providing the future homeowner with peace of mind that they’ll be covered if a system or appliance breaks down . . . Sometimes, a seller will pay for the first year of the home buyer’s warranty to sweeten the deal, but it depends on the real estate market.”

If you’re interested in a home warranty for peace of mind, lean on your agent. They’ll negotiate on your behalf to see if a seller would be willing to cover one for you. Just remember, the likelihood of a seller throwing one in depends on conditions in your local market.

So, Should I Buy New or Existing?

While the need for less upfront maintenance is a great perk for new construction, there are some things a newly built home can’t provide that an existing home can.

For example, existing homes have a lot of character and charm that’s difficult to reproduce. The quirks that come with an older home may make it feel more homey. And, existing homes usually have more developed landscaping and a well-established sense of community. So, it can feel more inviting than something that’s a blank slate, like new construction often is. Not to mention, if you go with new construction, you may have to wait for the home to finish being built based on where it is in the process. It all depends on what’s most important to you.

Bottom Line

Whether you choose a newly built or an existing home, you may be able to ease some of your concerns over maintenance with a home warranty. To weigh your options and go over what’s the top priority for you, talk to the professionals.

How Many Homes Are Investors Actually Buying in Prescott Valley, Arizona?

How Many Homes Are Investors Actually Buying?

Are big investors really buying up all the homes today?

If you’re trying to find a house to buy, this may be something you’re wondering about. Maybe you’ve read about it or seen reels on social media saying investors buying all the homes is making it even harder to find what the average buyer is looking for. But spoiler alert – there’s a lot of misinformation out there. To clear things up, here’s the scoop on what’s really happening. A lot of the big investor activity is actually in the rearview mirror already.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explains:

“Investors of all sizes spent billions of dollars buying homes during the pandemic. At the 2022 peak, they bought more than one in every four single-family homes sold, though more recently their activity has slowed as interest rates rose and supply became tighter.”

The key here is investor activity has slowed significantly, and even during the peak of investor buying, 3 out of every 4 single-family homes purchased were by regular, everyday buyers – not investors. And of the investors who bought over the past few years, most weren’t the big investors you may be hearing about. The vast majority were small mom-and-pop investors – people like your neighbors who own only a couple of homes, maybe even just their main residence and a vacation home.

But let’s focus on the giant, mega-investor firms since that’s what is being talked about so frequently on social media right now. Mega investors are those who own 1,000+ properties. You may be surprised to see that, according to the Wall Street Journal, they don’t buy all that many homes (see graph below):

No Caption Received

This graph tells us two things. First, institutional investors were never buying a large percentage of available homes. During the peak in 2022, they bought about 2% of available single-family homes. Second, that percentage has gotten even smaller recently (so small the number rounds down to 0%).

In an effort to understand why that percentage is trending down, private lender RCN Capital asked investors about the challenges they’re facing. Here’s what Jeffrey Tesch, CEO of RCN Capital, found out:

“Investors are already facing many challenges in today’s housing market – rising prices, limited inventory, and higher financing costs.”

Understanding these challenges is important because they show big, mega investors aren’t taking over the housing market.

So, don’t fall for everything you hear. They aren’t snatching up all the homes and making it impossible for regular people to buy. 

Bottom Line

Big investors aren’t buying all the homes out there. If you’ve got questions about what you’re hearing about the housing market, let’s chat. I can help you understand what’s really going on.

The Wealth-Building Power of Homeownership in Oxnard, California [INFOGRAPHIC]

Savings Strategies Every First-Time Homebuyer Needs To Know in Camarillo, California

Savings Strategies Every First-Time Homebuyer Needs To Know

If homeownership is on your goal sheet for your future, you’re probably working on your savings. And a big priority is making sure you’ve got a plan in place for things like your closing costs, down payment, and more.

Here are a few strategies that can help speed up that process.

Budget and Track Your Expenses: To start, create a detailed budget that tracks the money you’ve got coming in and the money going out. This’ll give you a better look at your finances as a whole.

Cut Down on Unnecessary Spending: Now that you have your budget sheet done and you know how you’re spending your money, look for any line items that aren’t absolutely essential. If you cut down on those, you can re-allocate that cash toward buying a home. Even the little things can add up. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“The majority of first-time buyers did make financial sacrifices to purchase a home. For those who did, the most common sacrifices buyers reported were cutting spending on luxury goods, entertainment, and clothes.”

Automate Your Savings: Once you know how much you want to set aside for your homebuying budget, look for ways to make it easy. If you have to transfer money manually, you may forget to do it. But getting some automatic transfers set up helps drive consistency and removes the temptation to spend it elsewhere. Realtor.com explains:

“If you’re struggling to put enough money away because of the constant temptations to blow your paycheck, consider automating the process. Ask your employer if you can have your paycheck deposited into multiple accounts—if so, instruct it to send a certain percentage of your salary directly into your savings account. Or go through your bank . . .”

Lean into Any Side Hustles You Have: Do you have a gig you do (or have done before) to net some extra cash? Taking on part-time work, freelance jobs, or picking up a side hustle can help give your savings a boost.

Put any Unexpected Cash To Good Use: If you get any sudden windfalls, like a tax refund, bonus, inheritance, or cash gift from family, put it toward your house fund.

By using these strategies and focusing on your savings over time, you can make sure you’re well on the path to having what you need to buy your first home. As Ramsey Solutions says:

“Budgeting shows your money who’s in charge (that’s you). It gives you the power to tell your money where to go instead of having to wonder where it went. It’s how you make any money goals happen—like saving for a down payment.”

Bottom Line

If you need more strategies for getting ready to buy, let’s connect.