Forecasting Year-End Home Prices
Let’s connect so you know what’s going on with home prices in our local area.
Let’s connect so you know what’s going on with home prices in our local area.
During the pandemic, many people distanced themselves from their loved ones for health reasons. Grandparents were told to stay away from their grandkids, especially as schools started to open. That’s because it would have been risky to visit with their grandchildren who may have gotten sick from school.
Now that the pandemic has passed, many grandparents want more than ever to be near their grandchildren again to make up for that lost time. But how are they getting that “Grandparent Wish?” The data tells us many are moving to make sure they’re getting more quality time.
Recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows people between the ages of 55 and 74 are moving farther (more than 100 miles) than any other age group (see graph below):
The average age of grandparents in the U.S. is 67 years. The logical leap is that at least some of the people who are moving the furthest are grandparents. But what’s causing them to move so far?
The same report from NAR shows the top reason people move is to be closer to loved ones (see graph below):
Based on this data, it’s fair to say many grandparents are getting their wish of more quality time with their grandchildren by moving to be closer to them. And after experiencing isolation and loneliness during the COVID pandemic, that’s an especially good thing.
If you’re a grandparent, you know how important your grandchildren are. And you may be willing to sell and move just to be closer by. As Vance Cariaga, a journalist at Go Bank Rates, explains:
“Never underestimate the power of grandchildren – especially when it comes to lifestyle and financial decisions. Recent data shows that many baby boomers are relocating further away from home than they used to so they can be closer to their grandbabies.”
The data shows grandparents are moving further to be near their grandchildren. If you have grandchildren of your own, maybe you can relate. When you decide it’s time to be closer to your loved ones, let’s connect.
One thing that may be working in your favor is how few homes there are for sale right now. Here’s what you need to know about the current inventory situation and what it means for you.
When you’re selling something, it helps if what you’re selling is in demand, but is also in low supply. Why? That makes it even more desirable since there’s not enough to go around. That’s exactly what’s happening in the housing market today. There are more buyers looking to buy than there are homes for sale.
To tell the story of just how low inventory is, here’s the latest information on active listings, or homes available for sale. The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to show how many active listings there were in September of this year compared to what’s more typical in the market.
As you can see in the graph, if you look at the last normal years for the market (shown in the blue bars) versus the latest numbers for this year (shown in the red bar), it’s clear inventory is still far lower than the norm.
Buyers have fewer choices now than they did in more typical years. And that’s why you could still see some great perks if you sell today. Because there aren’t enough homes to go around, homes that are priced right are still selling fast and the average seller is getting multiple offers from eager buyers. Based on the latest data from the Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
An article from Realtor.com also explains how the limited number of houses for sale benefits you if you’re selling:
“. . . homes spent two weeks less on the market this past month than they did in the average September from 2017 to 2019 . . . as still-limited supply spurs homebuyers to act quickly . . .”
Because the supply of homes for sale is so low, buyers desperately want more options – and your house may be just what they’re looking for. Let’s connect to get your house listed at the right price for today’s market. You could still see it sell quickly and potentially get multiple offers.
If you’re thinking of making a move, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? Despite what you may be hearing in the news, nationally, home prices aren’t falling. It’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Here’s the context you need to really understand that trend.
In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.
That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):
As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.
“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”
In the coming months, you’re going to see the media talk more about home prices. In their coverage, you’ll likely see industry terms like these:
Don’t let the terminology confuse you or let any misleading headlines cause any unnecessary fear. The rapid pace of home price growth the market saw in recent years was unsustainable. It had to slow down at some point and that’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation.
Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.
While the headlines are generating fear and confusion on what’s happening with home prices, the truth is simple. Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect.
Have you been trying to buy a home, but higher mortgage rates and home prices are limiting your options? If so, here’s some good news – based on what Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, has to say – smaller, more affordable homes are on the way:
“Buyers should expect that over the next 12 to 24 months there will be a notable increase in the number of entry-level homes available.”
In some ways, smaller homes are already here. When the pandemic hit, the meaning of home changed. People needed the space their home provided not only as a place to live, but as a place to work, go to school, exercise, and more. Those who had that space were more likely to keep it. And those that didn’t were in a position where they were trying to sell their smaller house to move up to a larger one. That meant the homes coming to the market during the pandemic were smaller than those on the market before the pandemic – and that trend continues today (see graph below):This graph also shows how the size of homes on the market changes seasonally. Larger homes tend to come on the market during the summer months when households with children who are out of school are looking to move.
That seasonality means, based on historical trends and the fact that fall is now approaching, we can expect smaller, more affordable homes to come to the market throughout the rest of the year.
That’s great news because, as Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), states, the need for these types of homes has gone up recently:
“. . . as interest rates increased in 2022, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower.”
The seasonal trend of smaller homes coming to the market in the later months of the year, coupled with builders bringing smaller, more affordable newly built homes to the market right now, is good news – especially if you’re finding it difficult to afford a home. Mikaela Arroyo, Director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says this about a potential increase in the availability of smaller homes:
“It’s not solving the affordability crisis, but it is creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area.”
If a smaller, more affordable home sounds appealing to you, good news – they’re coming. To keep up with what’s available in our area, let’s connect.
Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. Especially if you consider how few homes there are for sale today.
You may have heard inventory is low right now, but you may not fully realize just how low or why that’s a perk when you go to sell your house. This graph from Calculated Risk can help put that into perspective:
As the graph shows, while housing inventory did grow slightly week-over-week (shown in the blue bar), overall supply is still low (shown in the red bars). Compared to the same week last year, supply is down roughly 10% – and it was already considered low at that time. But, if you look further back, you’ll see inventory is down even more significantly.
To gauge just how far off from normal today’s inventory is, let’s compare right now to 2019 (the last normal year in the market). When you compare the same week this year with the matching week in 2019, supply is about 50% lower. That means there are half the homes for sale now than there’d usually be.
The key takeaway? We’re still nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. There’s plenty of demand for your house because there just aren’t enough homes to go around. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”
So, if you want to list your house, know that there’s only about half the inventory there’d usually be in a more normal year. That means your house will be in the spotlight if you sell now and you may see multiple offers and a fast home sale.
With the number of homes for sale roughly half of what there’d usually be in a more normal year, you can rest assured there’s demand for your house. If you want to sell, let’s connect now so your house can shine above the rest while inventory is so low.
While this isn’t the frenzied market we saw during the ‘unicorn’ years, homes that are priced right are still selling quickly and seeing multiple offers right now. That’s because the number of homes for sale is still so low. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 76% of homes sold within a month and the average saw 3.5 offers in June.
To set yourself up to see advantages like these, you need to rely on an agent. Only an agent has the expertise needed to find the right asking price for your house. Here’s what’s at stake if that price isn’t accurate for today’s market value.
Price it too low and you might raise questions about your home’s condition or lead buyers to assume something is wrong with it. Not to mention, if you undervalue your house, you could leave money on the table, which decreases your future buying power.
On the other hand, price it too high and you run the risk of deterring buyers from ever touring it in the first place. When that happens, you may have to do a price drop to try to re-ignite interest in your house when it sits on the market for a while. But be aware that a price drop can be seen as a red flag for some buyers who will wonder why the price was reduced and what that means about the home.
A recent article from NerdWallet sums it up like this:
“Your house’s market debut is your first chance to attract a buyer and it’s important to get the pricing right. If your home is overpriced, you run the risk of buyers not seeing the listing . . . But price your house too low and you could end up leaving some serious money on the table. A bargain-basement price could also turn some buyers away, as they may wonder if there are any underlying problems with the house.”
Think of pricing your home as a target. Your goal is to aim directly for the center – not too high, not too low, but right at market value.
Pricing your house fairly based on market conditions increases the chance you’ll have more buyers who are interested in purchasing it. That makes it more likely you’ll see multiple offers too. Plus, when homes are priced right, they still tend to sell quickly.
To get a high-level look into the potential downsides of over or underpricing your house and the perks that come with pricing it at market value, see the chart below:
So why is an agent essential in finding the right price? Your local agent has the skill and the insight necessary to find the market value of your home. They’ll use their expertise to determine a realistic listing price by assessing:
Pricing your house at market value is critical, so don’t rely on guesswork. Let’s connect to make sure your house is priced right for today’s market.
Everyone’s interpretation of the American Dream is unique and personal. But, for many people, it’s tied to a sense of success, freedom, and prosperity. These are all things that owning a home can help provide.
A recent survey from Bankrate asked respondents which achievements they feel most embody the American Dream. The responses prove owning a home is still important to so many Americans today (see graph below):
As the graph shows, homeownership ranks above other significant milestones, including retirement, having a successful career, and earning a college degree.
A recent report from MYND helps shed light on why so many people value homeownership. It finds:
“. . . nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) see homeownership as a means of building intergenerational wealth.”
That’s because, when you own a home, your equity (and net worth) grows over time as you pay down your home loan and as home prices appreciate. This can be a key factor in building intergenerational wealth and long-term financial stability.
To further drive home the difference homeownership can make in your life, a report from Fannie Mae says:
“Most consumers (87%) believe owning a home is important to ‘live the good life.’ . . . Notably, significantly more see ‘having less stress’ as a benefit achieved by owning than renting.”
Especially today, this could be because, when you own a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you stabilize what’s likely your largest monthly expense (your housing cost), and that helps combat the impact of rising costs from inflation.
While it may feel challenging to buy a home today with higher mortgage rates and home prices, if the time is right for you, know that when you buy a home, incredible benefits are waiting for you at the end of your journey.
Buying a home is a significant and powerful choice, embodying the foundation of the American Dream. If you plan to make your homeownership dream a reality this year, let’s connect to start the process.
If you’re thinking about selling your house right now, chances are it’s because something in your life has changed. And, while things like mortgage rates are a key part of your decision on what you’ll buy next, it’s important to not lose sight of the reason you want to make a change in the first place.
It’s true mortgage rates have climbed from the record lows we saw in recent years, and that has an impact on affordability. With rates where they are right now, some homeowners are deciding they’ll wait to sell because they don’t want to move and have a higher mortgage rate on their next home. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“. . . homeowners who locked in a 30-year fixed rate in the 2-3% range don’t necessarily want to give that up in exchange for a rate in the 6-7% range.”
But your lifestyle and your changing needs should matter more. Here are a few of the most common reasons people choose to sell today. Any one of these may be more important than keeping your current mortgage rate.
As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says in a recent tweet:
“First-time and move-up buyers are both active . . . the latter driven by life changes. Divorce, marriage, new higher paid job, and existing home unsuitable all referenced.”
Some of the things that can motivate a move to a new area include changing jobs, a desire to be closer to friends and loved ones, wanting to live in a dream location, or just looking for a change in scenery.
For example, if you live in suburbia and just landed your dream job in NYC, you may be thinking about selling your current home and moving to the city for work.
Many homeowners decide to sell to move into a larger home. This is especially common when there’s a need for more room to entertain, a home office or gym, or additional bedrooms to accommodate a growing number of loved ones.
For example, if you’re living in a condo and decide it’s time to seek out a home with more space, or if your household is growing, it may be time to find a home that better fits those needs.
With inflation driving up everyday expenses, homeowners may also decide to sell to reduce maintenance and costs. Or, they may sell because someone’s moved out of the home recently and there’s now more space than needed. It could also be that they’ve recently retired or are ready for a change.
For example, you’ve just kicked off your retirement and you want to move to somewhere you can enjoy the warm weather and have less house to maintain. Your new lifestyle may be better suited for a different home.
Divorce, separation, or marriage are other common reasons individuals sell to buy different homes.
For example, if you’ve recently separated, it may be difficult to still live under one roof. Selling and downsizing may be better options.
If a homeowner faces mobility challenges or health issues that require specific living arrangements or modifications, they might sell their current home to find one that works better for them.
For example, you may be looking to sell your home and use the proceeds to help pay for a unit in an assisted-living facility.
With higher mortgage rates, there are some affordability challenges right now – but your needs and your lifestyle matter too. As a recent article from Bankrate says:
“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal decision. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market. . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation . . .”
If you’re ready to sell your house so you can make a move, let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you navigate the process and find a home that can deliver on what you’re looking for.
With all the headlines circulating about home prices and rising mortgage rates, you may wonder if it still makes sense to invest in homeownership right now. A recent poll from Gallup shows the answer is yes. In fact, real estate was voted the best long-term investment for the 11th consecutive year, consistently beating other investment types like gold, stocks, and bonds (see graph below):
If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, let this poll reassure you. Even with everything happening today, Americans recognize owning a home is a powerful financial decision.
Purchasing real estate has typically been a solid long-term strategy for building wealth in America. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:
“. . . homeownership is a catalyst for building wealth for people from all walks of life. A monthly mortgage payment is often considered a forced savings account that helps homeowners build a net worth about 40 times higher than that of a renter.”
That’s because owning a home grows your net worth over time as your home appreciates in value and as you pay down your mortgage. And, since building that wealth takes time, it may make sense to start as soon as you can. If you wait to buy and keep renting, you’ll miss out on those monthly housing payments going toward your home equity.
Buying a home is a powerful decision. So, it’s no wonder so many people view real estate as the best long-term investment. If you’re ready to start on your own journey toward homeownership, let’s connect today.