2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect in Prescott, Arizona
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.
Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.
Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly
Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):
Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:
“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”
Expect More Homes To Sell
The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.
According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):
That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.
While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.
Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately
More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):
On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.
Bottom Line
Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For in Oxnard, California?
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?
You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):
And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.
Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates
Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.
What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.
And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.
Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:
“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”
Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates
So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:
“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”
As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?
Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.
Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.
Bottom Line
If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.
Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.
Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High in Oxnard, California
Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High
Mortgage rates have been one of the hottest topics in the housing market lately because of their impact on affordability. And if you’re someone who’s looking to make a move, you’ve probably been waiting eagerly for rates to come down for that very reason. Well, if the past few weeks are any indication, you may be getting your wish.
Mortgage Rates Trend Down in Recent Weeks
There’s big news for mortgage rates. After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rates started dropping a bit. And according to Freddie Mac, they’re now at a level we haven’t seen since February. To help show the downward trend, check out the graph below:
Maybe you’re seeing this and wondering if you should ride the wave and see how low they’ll go. If that’s the case, here’s some important perspective. Remember, the record-low rates from the pandemic are a thing of the past. If you’re holding out hope to see a 3% mortgage rate again, you’re waiting for something experts agree won’t happen. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“The hopes for lower interest rates need the reality check that ‘lower’ doesn’t mean we’re going back to 3% mortgage rates. . . the best we may be able to hope for over the next year is 5.5 to 6%.”
And with the decrease in recent weeks, you’ve got a big opportunity in front of you right now. It may be enough for you to want to jump back in.
The Relationship Between Rates and Demand
If you wait for mortgage rates to drop further, you might find yourself dealing with more competition as other buyers re-ignite their home searches too.
In the housing market, there’s generally a relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. Typically, the higher rates are, the lower buyer demand is. But when rates start to come down, things change. Buyers who were on the fence over higher rates will resume their searches. Here’s what that means for you. As a recent article from Bankrate says:
“If you’re ready to buy, now might be the time to strike. Home prices have been rising primarily because of a longstanding shortage of homes for sale. That’s unlikely to change, and if mortgage rates do fall below 6%, it’s possible buyers would enter the market en masse, further pushing up prices and resurrecting bidding wars.”
Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to make your move, the recent downward trend in mortgage rates may be enough to get you off the sidelines. Rates have hit their lowest point in months, and that gives you the opportunity to jump back in before all the other buyers do too.
If you’re ready and able to start the process, reach out and let’s get started.
How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates in Camarillo, California.
How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.
The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:
- The Rate of Inflation
- How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
- The Unemployment Rate
Here’s the latest data on all three.
1. The Rate of Inflation
You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.
The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is AddingThe Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:
“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”
So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.
But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):
It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”
Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.
Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.
Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.
Bottom Line
Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.
The Best Way To Keep Track Of Mortgage Rate Trends in Oxnard, California.
The Best Way To Keep Track of Mortgage Rate Trends
If you’re thinking about buying a home, chances are you’ve got mortgage rates on your mind. You’ve heard about how they impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to make sure you’re factoring that in as you plan your move.
The problem is, with all the headlines in the news about rates lately, it can be a bit overwhelming to sort through. Here’s a quick rundown of what you really need to know.
The Latest on Mortgage Rates
Rates have been volatile – that means they’re bouncing around a bit. And, you may be wondering, why? The answer is complicated because rates are affected by so many factors.
Things like what’s happening in the broader economy and the job market, the current inflation rate, decisions made by the Federal Reserve, and a whole lot more have an impact. Lately, all of those factors have come into play, and it’s caused the volatility we’ve seen. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates.”
Professionals Can Help Make Sense of it All
While you could drill down into each of those things to really understand how they impact mortgage rates, that would be a lot of work. And when you’re already busy planning a move, taking on that much reading and research may feel a little overwhelming. Instead of spending your time on that, lean on the pros.
They coach people through market conditions all the time. They’ll focus on giving you a quick summary of any broader trends up or down, what experts say lies ahead, and how all of that impacts you.
Take this chart as an example. It gives you an idea of how mortgage rates impact your monthly payment when you buy a home. Imagine being able to make a payment between $2,500 and $2,600 work for your budget (principal and interest only). The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below):
As you can see, even a small shift in rates can impact the loan amount you can afford if you want to stay within that target budget.
It’s tools and visuals like these that take everything that’s happening and show what it actually means for you. And only a pro has the knowledge and expertise needed to guide you through them.
You don’t need to be an expert on real estate or mortgage rates, you just need to have someone who is, by your side.
Bottom Line
Have questions about what’s going on in the housing market? Let’s connect so we can take what’s happening right now and figure out what it really means for you.
What Is Going On With Mortgage Rates in Simi Valley, California?
What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?
You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.
Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates
When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.
The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn’t determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.
And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:
As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It’s even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:
“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”
Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”
When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:
“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.”
In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:
“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”
Bottom Line
If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, let’s connect.
What’s The Latest With Mortgage Rates in Prescott Valley, Arizona?
What’s the Latest with Mortgage Rates?
Recent headlines may leave you wondering what’s next for mortgage rates. Maybe you’d previously heard there were going to be cuts this year that would bring rates down. That refers to the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and what they do to their Fed Funds Rate. While cutting, or lowering, the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates, it does tend to impact them. But when the Fed met last week, a cut didn’t happen — at least, not yet.
There are a lot of factors the Fed considered in their recent decision and most of them are complex. But you don’t need to be bogged down by those finer details. What you really want is the answer to this question: does that mean mortgage rates aren’t going to fall? Here’s what you need to know.
Mortgage Rates Are Still Expected To Drop This Year
While it hasn’t happened yet, that doesn’t mean it won’t. Even Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, says they still plan to make cuts this year, assuming inflation cools:
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”
When this happens, history shows mortgage rates will likely follow. That means hope isn’t lost. As a recent article from Business Insider explains:
“As inflation comes down and the Fed is able to start lowering rates, mortgage rates should go down, too. . .”
What This Means for You
But you don’t necessarily want to wait for it to happen. Mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast. There are so many factors at play and any one of those can change the projections as the economy shifts. And it’s why the experts offer this advice. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Well, mortgage rate projections are just that, projections, not promises and don’t forget how hard it is to forecast them. . . So my advice is to never try to time the market . . . If one is financially prepared and buying a home aligns with your lifestyle goals, then it could be the right time to purchase. And there’s always the refinance option if mortgage rates are lower in the future.”
Basically, if you’re looking to move and trying to time the market, don’t. If you’re ready, willing, and able to move, it may still be worth it to do it now, especially if you can find the home you’ve been searching for.
Bottom Line
If you’re looking to buy a home, let’s connect so you have someone keeping you up-to-date on mortgage rates and helping you make the best decision possible.
Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market in Prescott Valley, Arizona
Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market
There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.
According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:
“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”
That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):
Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):
The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).
But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):
As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.
Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?
Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn’t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.
Bottom Line
Most experts now think we won’t have a recession in the next year. They also don’t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.
What To Know About Credit Scores Before Buying a Home in Prescott, Arizona
What To Know About Credit Scores Before Buying a Home
If you want to buy a home, you should know your credit score is a critical piece of the puzzle when it comes to qualifying for a mortgage. Lenders review your credit to see if you typically make payments on time, pay back debts, and more. Your credit score can also help determine your mortgage rate. An article from US Bank explains:
“A credit score isn’t the only deciding factor on your mortgage application, but it’s a significant one. So, when you’re house shopping, it’s important to know where your credit stands and how to use it to get the best mortgage rate possible.”
That means your credit score may feel even more important to your homebuying plans right now since mortgage rates are a key factor in affordability. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the median credit score in the U.S. for those taking out a mortgage is 770. But that doesn’t mean your credit score has to be perfect. The same article from US Bank explains:
“Your credit score (commonly called a FICO Score) can range from 300 at the low end to 850 at the high end. A score of 740 or above is generally considered very good, but you don’t need that score or above to buy a home.”
Working with a trusted lender is the best way to get more information on how your credit score could factor into your home loan and the mortgage rate you’re able to get. As FICO says:
“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single “cutoff score” used by all lenders and there are many additional factors that lenders may use to determine your actual interest rates.”
If you’re looking for ways to improve your score, Experian highlights some things you may want to focus on:
- Your Payment History: Late payments can have a negative impact by dropping your score. Focus on making payments on time and paying any existing late charges quickly.
- Your Debt Amount (relative to your credit limits): When it comes to your available credit amount, the less you’re using, the better. Focus on keeping this number as low as possible.
- Credit Applications: If you’re looking to buy something, don’t apply for additional credit. When you apply for new credit, it could result in a hard inquiry on your credit that drops your score.
Bottom Line
Finding ways to make your credit score better could help you get a lower mortgage rate. If you want to learn more, talk to a trusted lender.