How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates in Camarillo, California.
How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.
The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:
- The Rate of Inflation
- How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
- The Unemployment Rate
Here’s the latest data on all three.
1. The Rate of Inflation
You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.
The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is AddingThe Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:
“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”
So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.
But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):
It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”
Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.
Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.
Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.
Bottom Line
Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.
A Newly Built Home May Actually Be More Budget-Friendly in Oxnard, California
A Newly Built Home May Actually Be More Budget-Friendly
If you’re in the market to buy a home, there’s some exciting news for you. Many people assume that newly built homes are more expensive than existing ones (houses that have already been lived in), but that’s not always the case. In fact, exploring newly built homes can sometimes lead to more cost-effective options, especially today. Hard to believe, right? But the data doesn’t lie.
Here are two key reasons working with your agent to look into new home construction could help you find a more budget-friendly option.
Reason 1: Lower Median Prices for Newly Built Homes
The median sales price for newly built homes is lower than the median sales price for existing homes today. This might seem surprising, but it’s true according to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
Why is that? Builders are focused on building what they can sell. And right now, there’s a very real need for smaller and more affordable homes – so that’s what they’ve been bringing to the market. At the same time, there are also more newly built homes already on the market than there have been over the past few years, so builders are motivated to make sure they’re selling what they’ve got available before adding more.
Reason 2: Attractive Incentives from Home Builders
Another big reason to consider a newly built home is the range of incentives that many home builders are offering. Again, since builders are aiming to sell their current inventory, some are providing special deals to sweeten the pot for homebuyers. HousingWire explains today’s trend:
“Overall, the usage of sales incentives was up to 61% in June, compared to 59% in May.”
One of the most appealing incentives right now is how builders are able to offer competitive mortgage rates. They may also provide other incentives, such as covering closing costs, or offering free upgrades.
Why This Matters to You
Considering a newly built home could open up opportunities you hadn’t thought of before. With competitive pricing and attractive incentives, you might just find that a brand-new home is the most appealing option for you.
Bottom Line
Buying a home is a big decision, and it’s essential to consider all your options. By looking into newly built homes, you might find a perfect fit for your needs and your budget.
Let’s explore the possibilities together. If you have any questions or want to see what’s available, feel free to reach out.
How Affordability and Remote Work Are Changing Where People Live in Prescott, Arizona.
How Affordability and Remote Work Are Changing Where People Live
There’s an interesting trend happening in the housing market. People are increasingly moving to more affordable areas, and remote or hybrid work is helping them do it.
Consider Moving to a More Affordable Area
Today’s high mortgage rates combined with continually rising home prices mean it’s tough for a lot of people to afford a home right now. That’s why many interested buyers are moving to places where homes are less expensive, and the cost of living is lower. As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, explains:
“Housing affordability has always mattered . . . and you’re seeing it across the country. Housing affordability is reshaping migration trends.”
If you’re hoping to buy a home soon, it might make sense to broaden your search area to include places where homes that fit your needs are more affordable. That’s what a lot of other people are doing right now to find a home within their budget. Extra Space Storage explains:
“55% of American adults are looking to relocate to a different state or city for more affordable homes and lower costs of living. . . Specifically, states with a strong economy, lower costs of living, and remote work options continue to be the ideal places to live in the U.S.”
Remote Work Opens Up More Home Options
If you work remotely or drive into the office only a few times each week, you have many more possibilities when looking for your next home. That’s because you can cast a broader net and include more suburban or rural areas nearby. As Market Place Homes says:
“People start to reconsider where they want to live when commute times are slashed in half or eliminated altogether. If they have a longer commute but don’t have to do it daily, they may feel like they can tolerate living farther away from their job. Or, if someone works entirely remotely, they can move to a cheaper area and get a lot of house for their dollar.”
How a Real Estate Agent Can Help
A real estate agent can help you find the perfect home for your budget. They’re especially valuable if you’re moving to a new, unfamiliar area. Bankrate says:
“If you’re moving far away, you may not have a good idea about which neighborhoods or towns will be the best fit. An experienced local agent can help you find the lifestyle you’re looking for in a home you can afford.”
So, if you’re thinking about relocating to somewhere with more affordable homes, what are you waiting for? With the added flexibility of remote work, you might have more options than before.
Bottom Line
Dreaming of a place where your money goes further? Let’s connect so you have someone to help you find your next home. Together, we’ll make your dream of homeownership a reality.
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Unlocking Homebuyer Opportunities in 2024 in Prescott Valley, Arizona
Unlocking Homebuyer Opportunities in 2024
There’s no arguing this past year has been difficult for homebuyers. And if you’re someone who has started the process of searching for a home, maybe you put your search on hold because the challenges in today’s market felt like too much to tackle. You’re not alone in that. A Bright MLS study found some of the top reasons buyers paused their search in late 2023 and early 2024 were:
- They couldn’t find anything in their price range
- They didn’t have any successful offers or had difficulty competing
- They couldn’t find the right home
If any of these sound like why you stopped looking, here’s what you need to know. The housing market is in a transition in the second half of 2024. Here are four reasons why this may be your chance to jump back in.
1. The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Growing
One of the most significant shifts in the market this year is how the months’ supply of homes for sale has increased. If you look at data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you’ll see how inventory has grown throughout 2024 (see graph below): 
This graph shows the months’ supply of existing homes – homes that were previously lived in by another homeowner. The upward trend this year is clear.
This increase means you have a better chance of finding a home that suits your needs and preferences. And if the biggest reason you put off your home search was difficulty finding the right home, this is a big relief.
2. There’s More New Home Construction
And if you still don’t see an existing home you like, another big opportunity lies in the rise of new home construction. Builders have worked to increase the supply of newly built homes this year. And they’ve turned their attention to crafting smaller, more affordable homes based on what’s most needed in today’s market. This helps address the long-standing issue of housing undersupply throughout the country, and those smaller homes also offset some of the affordability challenges you’re feeling today.
According to data from the Census and NAR, one in three homes on the market is a newly built home (see graph below):
This means, that if you didn’t previously look at newly built homes as part of your search, you may have been cutting your pool of options by a third. Not to mention, some builders are also offering incentives like buying down mortgage rates to make it easier for buyers to get a home that fits their budget.
So, consider talking to your agent about what builders have to offer in your area. Your agent’s expertise on builder reputations, contracts, and more will help you weigh your options.
3. Less Buyer Competition
Mortgage rates are still hovering around 7%, so buyer demand isn’t as fierce as it once was. And when you combine that with more housing supply, you have a better chance of avoiding an intense bidding war. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, highlights the positive trend for the latter half of 2024, saying:
“Home shoppers who persist could see better conditions in the second half of the year, which tends to be somewhat less competitive seasonally, and might be even more so since inventory is likely to reach five-year highs.”
This creates a unique opportunity for you to find a home you want to buy with less stress and at a potentially better price.
4. Home Prices Are Moderating
Speaking of prices, home prices are also showing signs of moderation – and that’s a welcome shift after the rapid appreciation seen in recent years (see graph below): 
This moderation is mostly due to supply and demand. Supply is growing and demand is easing, so prices aren’t rising as fast. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean prices are falling – they’re just rising at a more normal pace. You can see this in the graph. The bars are still showing prices increasing, just not as dramatic as it was before.
The average forecast for home price appreciation in 2024 is for positive growth around 3% to 5%, which is more in line with historical norms. That moderation means that you are less likely to face the steep price increases we saw a few years ago.
The Opportunity in Front of You
If you’re ready and able to buy, you may find that the second half of 2024 is a bit easier to navigate. There are still challenges, but some of the biggest hurdles you’ve faced are getting better as time wears on.
On the other hand, you could choose to wait. But if you do, here’s the risk you run. As more buyers recognize the shift in the market, competition will grow again. On a similar note, if mortgage rates do come down (as forecasts say), more buyers will flood back into the market. So, making a move now helps you take advantage of the current market conditions and get ahead of those other buyers.
Bottom Line
If you’ve put your dream of homeownership on hold, the second half of 2024 may be your chance to jump back in. Let’s connect to talk more about the opportunities you have in today’s market.
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The Price of Perfection: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Home in Phoenix, Arizona
The Price of Perfection: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Home
In life, patience is a virtue – but in the world of homebuying, waiting too long in hopes of finding the perfect home actually isn’t wise. That’s because the pursuit of perfection comes at a cost. And in this case, that cost may be delaying your dream of homeownership. As Bankrate explains:
“One of the most common first-time homebuyer mistakes is looking for a home that checks each of your boxes. Looking for perfection can narrow your choices and lead you to pass over good, suitable options for starter homes in the hopes that something better will come along.”
The Cost of Holding Out for Perfection
Nothing in life is ever perfect – and that’s true when you search for a home too. Unless you’re building a brand-new home from the ground up, chances are there are going to be some features or finishes you wouldn’t have picked yourself. It may be as simple as paint colors, a light fixture, or the tile in the bathrooms or kitchen. Or even that the backyard isn’t fenced in. It could also be that the home itself is great, but it’s not the ideal location you were hoping for.
But here’s the trade-off you’d be making without even realizing it. In all that time you’d spend searching for the perfect place, you’d overlook a lot of homes that would’ve worked for you. U.S. News explains:
“. . . you may miss opportunities if you enter the process with blinders on and aren’t open-minded . . . Countless potential buyers never buy because of this, and thus miss great investments or never move on to the next chapter of their lives.”
It’s Time To Redefine Perfection
Especially with affordability and inventory where they are today, buying a home that needs some updates, is a few neighborhoods away from your ideal location, or doesn’t have all your desired features can be a smart move. Here’s why.
For starters, these homes are usually more affordable, which is important at a time when some buyers are struggling to find options in their budget.
And they give you a chance to make the space your own or discover a whole new area of town. You may find out you actually love that neighborhood. Or, swapping out a feature here or there after move-in isn’t such a big deal. So, look past the green shag carpet and see the bones of the house. With a little vision and creativity, you can turn a good house into a fantastic home.
How an Agent Helps You Explore Your Options
If you’re open to a home that needs a little elbow grease or is a bit further out, let your agent know. They’ll be happy to show you how this can really open up your pool of homes to pick from. They’ll also help coach you through this process by:
1. Prioritizing Your Must-Haves: Your agent will want to revisit your wish list and separate your non-negotiables from your nice-to-haves. From there, they’ll focus on what’s really most important to you as they come up with a bigger list of options for you to choose from.
2. Coaching You To See the Potential: As you tour these added options, your agent will help you look beyond cosmetic flaws and imagine what the home could be with a little work. Simple updates like a fresh coat of paint or new flooring can make a big difference.
3. Connecting You with Local Pros: And an agent’s support goes one step further. If they know what you’re hoping to change after you move in, they can connect you with local pros who can get the job done. That way it’s less work for you, and you don’t have to worry about tracking down contractors.
Bottom Line
Remember, there is no perfect home. But with expert help and an open mind, we can find you the right home – even in today’s market. Let’s connect to see what’s out there.
Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008 in Prescott, Arizona
Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008
Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:
“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”
Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:
- Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
- New home construction (newly built homes)
- Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)
And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.
Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses
Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.
If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 
So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not the case right now.
New Home Construction
People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.
The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 
There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:
“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”
Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)
The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.
Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 
This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.
While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.
What This Means for You
Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:
“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren’t headed for a crash:
“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”
And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”
Bottom Line
The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.
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