How Growing Inventory Benefits Today’s Buyers in Ventura, California [INFOGRAPHIC]
The Latest on the Luxury Home Market
The Latest on the Luxury Home Market
Luxury living is about more than just stunning views and cutting-edge smart home technology—it’s about elevating your lifestyle. And if you’re in the market for a million-dollar home, now is an excellent time to explore the thriving luxury market. Here’s why.
The Number of Luxury Homes Is Growing
The top of the market, or luxury homes, can mean different things depending on where you live. But in general, these are homes that are in the top 5% price range in any area. According to a recent report from Redfin, the average value of those homes has risen to over one million dollars:
“The median sale price for U.S. luxury homes, defined as the top 5% of listings, rose 9% year-over-year to a record $1.18 million during the second quarter.”
That same report goes on to show the percentage of homes valued at a million dollars or more has risen to an all-time high (see graph below):
That means, if this is your desired price range, you have options to choose from, each with different features and styles.
Whether you’re looking for the latest designs, like modern kitchens with high-end appliances, exclusive amenities, or enhanced privacy and security, the market that fits this lifestyle is growing.
Your Luxury Home Is an Investment
In addition, a luxury home could help you build significant long-term wealth. As the Redfin quote mentioned earlier says, luxury home prices are rising. That may be the reason there are a lot of people investing in luxury real estate right now. According to the August Luxury Market Report:
“By the end of July, the overall growth in the volume of sales in 2024 stood at 14.82% for single-family homes and 11.35% for attached homes compared to the same period in 2023.”
Bottom Line
With more million-dollar homes on the market and prices going up, you have luxury options to choose from and a chance to build significant long-term wealth. Want to see the best homes in our area? Let’s get in touch today.
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market in Scottsdale, Arizona?
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.
What Is a Balanced Market?
A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed?
After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today:
For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”
What This Means for You and Your Move
Here’s how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you’ll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”
The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes:
Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options.
Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from.
Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward.
How a Real Estate Agent Can Help
But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up.
Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it.
Bottom Line
The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out.
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect in Prescott, Arizona
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.
Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.
Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly
Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):
Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:
“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”
Expect More Homes To Sell
The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.
According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):
That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.
While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.
Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately
More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):
On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.
Bottom Line
Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market in Prescott Valley, Arizona?
What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?
It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.
Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.
Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.
Home Sales
In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):
Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.
Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.
In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):
Home Prices
Home PricesYou may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.
The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):
The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.
Mortgage Rates
And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):
And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.
What This Means for You
What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.
Bottom Line
While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For in Oxnard, California?
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?
You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):
And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.
Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates
Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.
What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.
And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.
Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:
“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”
Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates
So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:
“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”
As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?
Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.
Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.
Bottom Line
If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.
Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.
Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths in Camarillo, California
Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths
Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important.
If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove.
1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash
If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below):
So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped.
2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy
If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below):
So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore.
3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment
Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says:
“Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.”
And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below):
First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move.
This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think.
An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions
If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back.
Bottom Line
If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.
Top 5 Reasons To Hire An Agent When Buying A Home In Prescott, Arizona. [INFOGRAPHIC]
Top 5 Reasons To Hire an Agent When Buying a Home [INFOGRAPHIC]
Some Highlights
- Hiring an agent when buying a home helps you understand the buying process and the local market.
- They’ll also go over contracts and fine print with you, so you understand what you’re agreeing to. Plus, they’re good at negotiating, making sure you get the best deal.
- Expert advice from a trusted real estate professional is priceless. Let’s connect today.
Your Home Is a Powerful Investment in Ventura, California
Your Home Is a Powerful Investment
Going into 2023, there was a lot of talk about a possible recession that would cause the housing market to crash. Some in the media were even forecasting home prices would drop by as much as 10-20%—and that might have made you feel a bit unsure about buying a home.
But here’s what actually happened: home prices went up more than usual. Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explains:
“Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years.”
To put last year’s growth into context, the graph below uses data from Freddie Mac on how home prices have changed each year going back to 1980. The dotted line shows the long-term average for appreciation:
The big takeaway? Home prices almost always go up.
As an article from Forbes says:
“. . . the U.S. real estate market has a long and reliable history of increasing in value over time.”
In fact, since 1980, the only time home prices dropped was during the housing market crash (shown in red in the graph above). Fortunately, the market today isn’t like it was in 2008. For starters, there aren’t enough available homes to meet buyer demand right now. On top of that, homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity, so they’re on much stronger footing than they were back then. That means there won’t be a wave of foreclosures that causes prices to fall.
The fact that home values went up every single year except those four in red is why owning a home can be one of the smartest moves you can make. When you’re a homeowner, you own something that typically becomes more valuable over time. And as your home’s value appreciates, your net worth grows.
So, if you’re financially stable and prepared for the costs and expenses of homeownership, buying a home might make a lot of sense for you.
Bottom Line
Home prices almost always go up over time. That makes buying a home a smart move, if you’re ready and able. Let’s connect to talk about your goals and what’s available in our area.