Is Owning a Home Still the American Dream for Younger Buyers in Simi Valley, California?

Is Owning a Home Still the American Dream for Younger Buyers?

Everyone has their own idea of the American Dream, and it’s different for each person. But, in a recent survey by Bankrate, people were asked about the achievements they believe represent the American Dream the most. The answers show that owning a home still claims the #1 spot for many Americans today (see graph below):

In fact, according to the graph, owning a home is more important to people than retiring, having a successful career, or even getting a college degree. But is the dream of homeownership still alive for younger generations?

A recent survey by 1000watt dives into how the two generations many people believed would be the renter generations (Gen Z and millennials) feel about homeownership. Specifically, it asks if they want to buy a home in the future. The resounding answer is yes (see graph below):

While there are plenty of reasons why someone might prefer homeownership to renting, the same 1000watt survey shows, that for 63% of Gen Z and millennials, it’s that your place doesn’t feel like “home” unless you own it – maybe you feel the same way.

That emotional draw is further emphasized when you look at the reasons why Gen Z and millennials want to become homeowners. For all the financial benefits homeownership provides, in most cases it’s about the lifestyle or emotional benefits (see graph below):

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re a part of Gen Z or are a millennial and you’re ready, willing, and able to buy a home, you’ll want a great real estate agent by your side. Their experience and expertise in the local housing market will help you overcome today’s high mortgage rates, low inventory, and rising home prices to find your first home and turn your dream into a reality.

Working with a local real estate agent to find your dream home is the key to unlocking the American Dream.

Bottom Line

Buying a home is a big, important decision that represents the heart of the American Dream. If you want to accomplish your goal, let’s connect to start the process today.

Why the Economy Won’t Tank the Housing Market on Oxnard, California

Why the Economy Won’t Tank the Housing Market

If you’re worried about a coming recession, you’re not alone. Over the past couple of years, there’s been a lot of recession talk. And many people worry, if we do have one, it would cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. Some even fear that a spike in unemployment would lead to a rash of foreclosures similar to what happened 15 years ago.

However, the latest Economic Forecasting Survey from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reveals that, for the first time in over a year, less than half (48%) of economists believe a recession will actually occur within the next year:

“Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy . . . economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”

If over half of the experts no longer expect a recession within the next year, you might naturally think those same experts also don’t expect the unemployment rate to jump way up – and you’d be right. The graph below uses data from that same WSJ survey to show exactly what the economists project for the unemployment rate over the next three years (see graph below):

If those expert projections are correct, more people will lose their jobs in the upcoming year. And job losses of any kind are devastating for those people and their loved ones.

However, the question here is: will there be enough job losses to cause a wave of foreclosures that will crash the housing market? Based on historical context from Macrotrends and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the answer is no. That’s because the unemployment rate is currently near all-time lows (see graph below):

As the orange bar in the graph shows, the average unemployment rate dating back to 1948 is 5.7%. The red bar shows, the last time the housing market crashed, in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the average unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those bars are much higher than the unemployment rate today (shown in the blue bar).

Moving forward, projections show the unemployment rate is likely to stay beneath the 75-year average. And that means we won’t see a wave of foreclosures that would severely impact the housing market.

Bottom Line

Most economists no longer expect a recession to occur in the next 12 months. That’s why they also don’t expect a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate that would lead to a rash of foreclosures and another housing market crash. If you have questions about unemployment and its impact on the housing market, let’s connect.

Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind in Simi Valley, California?

Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?

When it comes to what’s happening in the housing market, there’s a lot of confusion going around right now. You may hear one thing in conversation with your friends, see something totally different on the news, and read something on social media that contradicts both of those thoughts. And, if you’re thinking about making a move, that can leave you with a lot of lingering questions. That’s where a trusted local real estate agent comes in.

Here are the top 3 questions people are asking about today’s housing market, and the data to help answer them.

1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in recent years. And, if you’re looking to buy a home, that impacts how much you can afford. That’s why so many buyers want to know what’s ahead for mortgage rates. The answer to that question is: no one can say for certain, but here’s what we know based on historical trends.

There’s a long-standing relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. Basically, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Over the past year, inflation was up, so mortgage rates were as well. But inflation is easing now. And this is why the Federal Reserve has recently paused their federal funds rate hikes, which means many experts believe mortgage rates will begin to come down.

And in some ways, we’ve started to see hints of slightly lower mortgage rates in recent weeks. But it’s certainly been volatile and will likely continue to be that way going into next year. Some ongoing variation is to be expected, but the anticipation is, that in 2024, we’ll see a downward trend. As Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics, says:

“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think – in the weeks and months to come.”

2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?

While there’s been a lot of concern prices would come crashing down this year, data shows that didn’t happen. In fact, home prices are rising in most of the nation. Experts say that trend will continue, just at a slower pace that’s much more normal for the housing market – and that’s a good thing.

To help show just how confident experts are in this continued appreciation, take a look at the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics. It’s a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As the graph below shows, the consensus is, that prices will keep climbing next year, and in the years to come.

3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?

While recession talk has been a common thing over the past few years, there’s good news on that front.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls experts on this topic regularly. And last year at this time, most of them thought a recession would have happened by now. But as experts look at all the leading indicators today, they’re changing their minds and saying a recession is getting less and less likely. The latest results show that more experts now think we’re not headed for another recession (see chart below):

This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.

Bottom Line

The big takeaway? The data shows there isn’t cause for concern – there are actually more signs of hope. Let’s connect to talk more about the housing market questions on your mind as we head into the new year.

Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America or in Ventura, California?

Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America?

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you may find yourself interested in the latest real estate headlines so you can have a pulse on all of the things that could impact your decision. If that’s the case, you’ve probably heard mention of investors and wondered how they’re impacting the housing market right now. That could leave you asking yourself questions like:

  • How many homes do investors own?
  • Are institutional investors, like large Wall Street Firms, really buying up so many homes that the average person can’t find one?

To answer those questions, here’s the real story of what’s happening based on the data.

Let’s start with establishing how many single-family homes (SFHs) there are and what portion of those are rentals owned by investors. According to SFR Investor, which studies the single-family rental market in the United States, there are eighty-two million single-family homes in this country. But how many of them are actually rentals?

According to data shared in a recent post, sixty-eight million (82.93%) of those homes are owner-occupied – meaning the person who owns the home lives in it. If you subtract that sixty-eight million from the total number of single-family homes (82 million), that leaves just about fourteen million homes left that are single-family rentals (SFRs).

Do institutional investors own all of those remaining fourteen million homes? Not even close. Let’s take it one step further. There are four categories of investors:

  • The mom & pop investor who owns between 1-9 SFRs
  • The regional investor who owns between 10-99 SFRs
  • Smaller national investor who owns between 100-999 SFRs
  • The institutional investor who owns over 1,000 SFRs

These categories show that not all investors are large institutional investors. To help convey that even more clearly, here are the percentages of rental homes owned by each type of investor (see chart below):

As you can see in the chart, despite what the news and social media would have you believe, the green shows the vast majority are not owned by large institutional investors. Instead, most are owned by small mom & pop investors, like your friends and neighbors.

What’s actually happening is, that there are people out there, just like you, who believe in homeownership, and they view buying a home (or a second home) as an investment. Maybe they saw an opportunity to buy a second home over the last few years to use it as a rental and generate additional income. Or maybe they just decided to keep their first house rather than sell it when they moved up.

So, don’t believe everything you read or hear about institutional investors. They aren’t buying up all the homes and making it impossible for the average person to buy. That’s just not what the numbers show. Institutional investors are actually the smallest piece of the pie chart.

Bottom Line

While it’s true that institutional investors are a player in the single-family rental marketplace, they’re not buying up all of the houses on the market. If you have other questions about things you’re hearing about the housing market, let’s connect so you have an expert to give you the context you need.

Are There Actually More Homes for Sale Right Now in Oxnard, California?

Are There Actually More Homes for Sale Right Now?

If you’re looking to make a move, you want to be sure you have the latest information on the housing market. To help make that possible, here’s an update on the supply of homes for sale today. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, the number of homes available in your local market matters to you. Take a look below.

What’s the Truth About Today’s Housing Inventory?

While the story for the past few years has been how few homes are on the market, recent national data may leave you feeling a bit confused. That’s because Realtor.com shows inventory is actually growing a bit month-over-month in many parts of the country (see the blue states in the map below):

As the map shows, nationally, housing supply increased just over 5% last month.

Does That Mean the Days of Limited Inventory Are Over?

That might make you wonder: are the days of tight housing supply behind us? The short answer is no. Context is important. While you may see headlines saying inventory is up, data also shows there are still significantly fewer homes for sale than there would usually be in a more normal market.

The graph below compares the latest active listing counts (homes currently available for sale) with the most recent normal years in the housing market (2017-2019):

As Lance Lambert, Founder, ResiClub Analytics, explains:

“Housing market inventory is so far below pre-pandemic levels that October’s big jump is still just a drop in the bucket.”

What does that mean for you? Remember, real estate is hyper-local. Partnering with a trusted real estate agent will help you gain a better understanding of the inventory situation in your specific market.

If you’re looking to buy, you may have slightly more options than you did in recent months, but you still need to brace for low inventory. A great agent will be able to share their expertise and key strategies that have helped other buyers navigate today’s ongoing low housing supply.

And, if you’re trying to sell, rest assured you haven’t missed your window of opportunity to potentially get multiple offers or see your house sell quickly. While inventory has ticked up some nationally, overall, it’s still low and may be down even more in your area.

Bottom Line

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, let’s connect so you can make sure you’re up to date on all the latest trends that could impact your move, including today’s housing supply.

Is Your House the Top Thing on a Buyer’s Wish List this Holiday Season in Simi Valley, California?

Is Your House the Top Thing on a Buyer’s Wish List this Holiday Season?

This time every year, homeowners who are planning to move have a decision to make: sell now or wait until after the holidays? Some sellers with homes already on the market may even remove their listing until the new year.

But the truth is, many buyers want to purchase a home for the holidays, and your house might be just what they’re looking for. As an article from Fortune Builders explains:

“ . . . while a majority of people take a step back from the real estate market during the holiday months, you may find when the temperature drops, your potential for a great real estate deal starts to rise.”

To help prove that point, here are four reasons you shouldn’t wait to sell your house.

1. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. While a few buyers might opt to delay their moving plans until January, others may need to move now because something in their life has changed. The buyers who look for homes at this time of year are usually motivated to make their move happen and are eager to buy. A recent article from Investopedia says:

“Anyone shopping for a new home between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is likely going to be a serious buyer. Putting your home on the market at this time of year and attracting a serious buyer can often result in a quicker sale.”

2. While the supply of homes for sale has increased a little bit lately, overall inventory is still lower than it was before the pandemic. What does that mean for you? If you work with an agent to price your house at market value, it could still sell quickly because today’s buyers are craving more options – and your home may be exactly what they’re searching for.

3. You can determine the days and times that are most convenient for you for home showings. That can help you minimize disruptions to your own schedule, which can be especially important during this busy time of year. Plus, you may find buyers are more flexible on when they’ll tour a house this time of year because they have more time off from work around the holidays.

4. And finally, homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers. For those buyers, it’s easy to picture gathering with their loved ones in the home and making memories of their own. An article on selling at this time of year offers this advice:

“If you’re selling around a holiday and have decorations up, make sure they accent—not overpower—a room. Less is more.”

Bottom Line

There are plenty of good reasons to put your house on the market during the holiday season. Let’s chat and see if it’s the right time for you to sell.

2024 Housing Market Forecast in Camarillo, California [INFOGRAPHIC]

2024 Housing Market Forecast [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights

The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast

The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast

The new year is right around the corner, and you might be wondering if 2024 will be the right time to buy or sell a home. If you want to make the most informed decision possible, it’s important to know what the experts have to say about what’s ahead for the housing market. Spoiler alert: the projections may be better than you think. Here’s why.

Experts Forecast Ongoing Home Price Appreciation

Take a look at the latest home price forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

As you can see in the orange bars on the left, on average, experts forecast prices will end this year up about 2.8% overall, and increase by another 1.5% by the end of 2024. That’s big news, considering so many people thought prices would crash this year. The truth is, prices didn’t come tumbling way down in 2023, and that’s because there just weren’t enough homes for sale compared to the number of people who wanted or needed to buy them, and that inventory crunch is still very real. This is the general rule of supply and demand, and it continues to put upward pressure on prices as we move into the new year.

Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn’t as big as in 2023, it’s important to understand home price appreciation is cumulative. In simpler terms, this means if the experts are right, according to the national average, after your home’s value goes up by 2.8% this year, it should go up by another 1.5% next year. That ongoing price growth is a big part of why owning a home can be a smart decision in the long run.

Projections Show Sales Should Increase Slightly Next Year

While 2023 hasn’t seen a lot of home sales relative to more normal years in the housing market, experts are forecasting a bit more activity next year. Here’s what those same three organizations project for the rest of this year, and in 2024 (see graph below):

 

While expectations are for just a slight uptick in total sales, improved activity next year is a good thing for the housing market, and for buyers and sellers like you. As people continue to move, that opens up options for hopeful buyers who are looking for a home.

So, what do these forecasts show? The housing market is expected to be more active in 2024. That may be in part because there will always be people who need to move. People will get new jobs, have children, get married or divorced – these and other major life changes lead people to move regardless of housing market conditions. That will remain true next year, and for years to come. And if mortgage rates come down, we’ll see even more activity in the housing market.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to know what the experts are forecasting for the future of the housing market. When you’re in the know about what’s ahead, you can make the most informed decision possible. Let’s chat about the latest forecasts together, and craft a plan for your next move.

Reasons To Sell Your House Before the New Year in Oxnard

Reasons To Sell Your House Before the New Year

As the year winds down, you may have decided it’s time to make a move and put your house on the market. But should you sell now or wait until January? While it may be tempting to hold off until after the holidays, here are three reasons to make your move before the new year.

Get One Step Ahead of Other Sellers

Typically, in the residential real estate market, homeowners are less likely to list their houses toward the end of the year. That’s because people get busy around the holidays and sometimes deprioritize selling their house until the start of the new year when their schedules and social calendars calm down. But that gives you an opportunity to get one step ahead.

Selling now, while other homeowners may hold off until after the holidays, can help you get a leg up on your competition. Start the process with a real estate agent today so you can get your house on the market before your neighbors do.

Get Your House in Front of Eager Buyers 

Even though the supply of homes for sale did grow compared to last year, it’s still low. That means there aren’t enough homes on the market today. While some buyers may also delay their plans to move until January, others will still need to move for personal reasons or because something in their life has changed.

Those buyers are still going to be active later this year and will be seriously motivated to make their move happen because they need to. Unfortunately, the challenge they’ll face is a shortage of available inventory to meet their needs. A recent article from Investopedia says:

“. . . if your house is up for sale in the winter and someone is looking at it, chances are that person is serious and ready to buy. Anyone shopping for a new home between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is likely going to be a serious buyer. Putting your home on the market at this time of year and attracting a serious buyer can often result in a quicker sale.”

Use Your Equity To Fuel Your Move

Keep in mind that homeowners today have record amounts of equity. According to CoreLogic, the average amount of equity per mortgage holder has climbed to almost $290,000. That means the equity you have in your house right now could cover some, if not all, of a down payment on the home of your dreams.

And as you weigh the reasons to sell before year-end, it’s important to remember the reasons that sparked your desire to move in the first place. Maybe it’s time for a new home in a location that suits you better, one that offers the perfect space for you and your loved ones, or maybe your needs have evolved over time. A local real estate agent can help you determine how much home equity you have and how you can use it to achieve your goal of making a move.

Bottom Line

Listing your home before the new year can offer unique benefits. Less competition, motivated buyers, and your equity gains can all play to your advantage. Reach out, and let’s achieve your goals before winter sets in.

Why Homeowners Feel Thankful for Their Homes in Simi Valley [INFOGRAPHIC]

Why Homeowners Feel Thankful for Their Homes [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights

  • Here are three reasons why homeowners feel thankful for their homes. First, it’s a safe place that can give you a greater sense of comfort, safety, and security.
  • Second, it gives you freedom of expression. From the color of the paint to the art on the walls, you can express your style and your personality.
  • Third, it provides a sense of community. Owning your home helps you build lasting friendships with neighbors and connects you to your community. If you’re thinking of buying a home and want to hear more about the potential benefits, let’s talk.